Predicting Mortality in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in Zambia: An Application of Machine Learning.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has wreaked havoc globally, resulting in millions of cases and deaths. The objective of this study was to predict mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Zambia using machine learning (ML) methods based on factors that have been shown to be predictive of mortality and thereby improve pandemic preparedness. This research employed seven powerful ML models that included decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), support vector machines (SVM), logistic regression (LR), Naïve Bayes (NB), gradient boosting (GB), and XGBoost (XGB). These classifiers were trained on 1,433 hospitalized COVID-19 patients from various health facilities in Zambia. The performances achieved by these models were checked using accuracy, recall, F1-Score, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC_AUC), area under the precision-recall curve (PRC_AUC), and other metrics. The best-performing model was the XGB which had an accuracy of 92.3%, recall of 94.2%, F1-Score of 92.4%, and ROC_AUC of 97.5%. The pairwise Mann-Whitney U-test analysis showed that the second-best model (GB) and the third-best model (RF) did not perform significantly worse than the best model (XGB) and had the following: GB had an accuracy of 91.7%, recall of 94.2%, F1-Score of 91.9%, and ROC_AUC of 97.1%. RF had an accuracy of 90.8%, recall of 93.6%, F1-Score of 91.0%, and ROC_AUC of 96.8%. Other models showed similar results for the same metrics checked. The study successfully derived and validated the selected ML models and predicted mortality effectively with reasonably high performance in the stated metrics. The feature importance analysis found that knowledge of underlying health conditions about patients' hospital length of stay (LOS), white blood cell count, age, and other factors can help healthcare providers offer lifesaving services on time, improve pandemic preparedness, and decongest health facilities in Zambia and other countries with similar settings.

COVID-19 Knowledge and Prevention Behaviors in Rural Zambia: A Qualitative Application of the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills Model.

In early 2020, the Zambian Ministry of Health instituted prevention guidelines to limit spread of COVID-19. We assessed community knowledge, motivations, behavioral skills, and perceived community adherence to prevention behaviors (i.e., hand hygiene, mask wearing, social distancing, and limiting gatherings). Within a cluster-randomized controlled trial in four rural districts, in November 2020 and May 2021, we conducted in-depth interviews with health center staff (N = 19) and community-based volunteers (N = 34) and focus group discussions with community members (N = 281). A content analysis was conducted in Nvivo v12. Data were interpreted using the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills Model. Generally, respondents showed good knowledge of COVID-19 symptoms, spread, and high-risk activities, with some gaps. Prevention behavior performance was driven by personal and social factors. Respondents described institutional settings (e.g., clinics and church) having higher levels of perceived adherence due to stronger enforcement measures and clear leadership. Conversely, informal community settings (e.g., weddings, funerals, football matches) lacked similar social and leadership expectations for adherence and had lower perceived levels of adherence. These settings often involved higher emotions (excitement or grief), and many involved alcohol use, resulting in community members "forgetting" guidelines. Doubt about disease existence or need for precautions persisted among some community members and drove non-adherence more generally. Although COVID-19 information successfully penetrated these very remote rural communities, more targeted messaging may address persistent COVID-19 doubt and misinformation. Engaging local leaders in religious, civic, and traditional leadership positions could improve community behaviors without adding additional monitoring duties on an already overburdened, resource-limited health system.

Rectal artesunate for severe malaria, implementation research, Zambia.

Objective: To determine whether the positive results of a single-district pilot project focused on rectal artesunate administration at the community level in Zambia could be replicated on a larger scale. Methods: In partnership with government, in 10 rural districts during 2018-2021 we: (i) trained community health volunteers to administer rectal artesunate to children with suspected severe malaria and refer them to a health facility; (ii) supported communities to establish emergency transport, food banks and emergency savings to reduce referral delays; (iii) ensured adequate drug supplies; (iv) trained health workers to treat severe malaria with injectable artesunate; and (v) monitored severe malaria cases and associated deaths via surveys, health facility data and a community monitoring system. Results: Intervention communities accessed quality-assured rectal artesunate from trained community health volunteers, and follow-on treatment for severe malaria from health workers. Based on formal data from the health management information system, reported deaths from severe malaria reduced significantly from 3.1% (22/699; 95% confidence interval, CI: 2.0-4.2) to 0.5% (2/365; 95% CI: 0.0-1.1) in two demonstration districts, and from 6.2% (14/225; 95% CI: 3.6-8.8) to 0.6% (2/321; 95% CI: 0.0-1.3) in eight scale-up districts. Conclusion: Despite the effects of the coronavirus disease, our results confirmed that pre-referral rectal artesunate administered by community health volunteers can be an effective intervention for severe malaria among young children. Our results strengthen the case for wider expansion of the pre-referral treatment in Zambia and elsewhere when combined with supporting interventions.

The impact of community-based, peer-led sexual and reproductive health services on knowledge of HIV status among adolescents and young people aged 15 to 24 in Lusaka, Zambia: The Yathu Yathu cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: The growing population of adolescents and young people (AYP) aged 15 to 24 in sub-Saharan Africa face a high burden of HIV in many settings. Unintended pregnancies among adolescent girls in the region remain high. Nonetheless, the sexual and reproductive health (SRH) service needs of AYP have remained underserved. We conducted a cluster-randomised trial (CRT) to estimate the impact of community-based, peer-led SRH service provision on knowledge of HIV status and other SRH outcomes, including met need for contraceptives. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Yathu Yathu was a cluster-randomised trial (CRT) conducted from 2019 to 2021 in 2 urban communities in Lusaka, Zambia. The communities were divided into 20 zones (approximately 2,350 AYP/zone) that were randomly allocated to the Yathu Yathu intervention or control arm. In each intervention zone, a community-based hub, staffed by peer support workers, was established to provide SRH services. In 2019, a census was conducted in all zones; all consenting AYP aged 15 to 24 were given a Yathu Yathu card, which allowed them to accrue points for accessing SRH services at the hub and health facility (intervention arm) or the health facility only (control arm). Points could be exchanged for rewards, thus acting as an incentive to use SRH services in both arms. We conducted a cross-sectional survey in 2021 to estimate the impact of Yathu Yathu on the primary outcome: knowledge of HIV status (self-reporting living with HIV or HIV testing in the last 12 months) and secondary outcomes, including use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the last 12 months, current use of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and met need for contraceptive services. The sampling was stratified on sex and age group, and we analysed data at cluster-level using a two-stage process recommended for CRTs with <15 clusters/arm. A total of 1,989 AYP consented to participate in the survey (50% male); consent was similar across arms (63% consent/arm). Across zones, knowledge of HIV status ranged from 63.6% to 81.2% in intervention zones and 35.4% to 63.0% in control zones. Adjusting for age, sex, and community, knowledge of HIV status was higher in the intervention arm compared to control (73.3% versus 48.4%, respectively, adjusted prevalence ratio (PR) 1.53 95% CI 1.36, 1.72; p < 0.001). By age and sex, results were similar. There was no evidence for impact on any secondary outcomes, including current use of ART and met need for contraceptives. There were no adverse events reported in either arm. A key limitation of our trial is that approximately 35% of the AYP randomly selected for participation in the endline survey could not be reached. CONCLUSIONS: Delivering community-based, peer-led SRH services increased knowledge of HIV status among AYP, both males and females, compared with the control arm. Scaling up the highly effective Yathu Yathu strategy has the potential to make a substantial contribution to increasing access to HIV prevention and care services for young people. However, additional implementation research is needed to understand how to improve uptake of broader SRH services, beyond uptake of HIV testing. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN75609016, clinicaltrials.gov number NCT04060420.

Attractive targeted sugar bait phase III trials in Kenya, Mali, and Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) target night-time indoor biting mosquitoes and effectively reduce malaria transmission in rural settings across Africa, but additional vector control tools are needed to interrupt transmission. Attractive targeted sugar baits (ATSBs) attract and kill mosquitoes, including those biting outdoors. Deployment of ATSBs incorporating the insecticide dinotefuran was associated with major reductions in mosquito density and longevity in Mali. The impact of this promising intervention on malaria transmission and morbidity now needs to be determined in a range of transmission settings. METHODS/DESIGN: We will conduct three similar stand-alone, open-label, two-arm, cluster-randomized, controlled trials (cRCTs) in Mali, Kenya, and Zambia to determine the impact of ATSB + universal vector control versus universal vector control alone on clinical malaria. The trials will use a "fried-egg" design, with primary outcomes measured in the core area of each cluster to reduce spill-over effects. All household structures in the ATSB clusters will receive two ATSBs, but the impact will be measured in the core of clusters. Restricted randomization will be used. The primary outcome is clinical malaria incidence among children aged 5-14 years in Mali and 1-14 years in Kenya and Zambia. A key secondary outcome is malaria parasite prevalence across all ages. The trials will include 76 clusters (38 per arm) in Mali and 70 (35 per arm) in each of Kenya and Zambia. The trials are powered to detect a 30% reduction in clinical malaria, requiring a total of 3850 person-years of follow-up in Mali, 1260 person-years in Kenya, and 1610 person-years in Zambia. These sample sizes will be ascertained using two seasonal 8-month cohorts in Mali and two 6-month seasonal cohorts in Zambia. In Kenya, which has year-round transmission, four 6-month cohorts will be used (total 24 months of follow-up). The design allows for one interim analysis in Mali and Zambia and two in Kenya. DISCUSSION: Strengths of the design include the use of multiple study sites with different transmission patterns and a range of vectors to improve external validity, a large number of clusters within each trial site, restricted randomization, between-cluster separation to minimize contamination between study arms, and an adaptive trial design. Noted threats to internal validity include open-label design, risk of contamination between study arms, risk of imbalance of covariates across study arms, variation in durability of ATSB stations, and potential disruption resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Zambia: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04800055 . Registered on March 15, 2021 Mali: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04149119 . Registered on November 4, 2019 Kenya: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05219565 . Registered on February 2, 2022.

Perspectives on sexual and reproductive health self-care among women, healthcare providers, and other key informants: a mixed-methods study in South Africa and Zambia.

BACKGROUND: "Self-care" for sexual and reproductive health (SRH) includes contraceptive methods and other supplies that people can use with or without the support of a healthcare provider. Self-administered tests, self-injection of injectable contraception, or self-removal of intrauterine devices (IUDs) can increase people's access to and autonomy over their own SRH. Objectives of this study were to assess women's current interest in and use of SRH self-care and explore key informants' (KI) opinions of self-care, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Data for this study came from female participants in the longitudinal Contraceptive Use Beyond ECHO (CUBE) study, and KIs, including healthcare providers, in South Africa and Zambia between September 2020 and June 2021. For this analysis, we used data from a participant phone survey (n = 537), and from in-depth interviews (IDIs) completed with a sub-sample of women (n = 39) and KIs (n = 36). Survey data were analyzed with descriptive statistics, and IDI data were analyzed using applied thematic analysis. RESULTS: Female survey participants in South Africa were more interested in learning about emergency contraceptive pills, subcutaneous injectable contraception, and CycleBeads, while Zambian participants wanted more information and access to condoms. However, in IDIs in both countries, women described minimal experience with self-care beyond condom use. In the Zambian KI IDIs, COVID-19 led to increased self-care counseling on subcutaneous injectable contraception and HIV self-testing. KIs who do not counsel on self-care were concerned that women may harm themselves or blame the provider for difficulties. Two KIs thought that women could possibly self-remove IUDs, but most expressed concerns. Reported barriers to self-care included COVID movement restrictions, transport costs, lack of accessible pharmacies, women's low awareness, and possible stigma. CONCLUSIONS: Women surveyed reported interest in learning more about SRH self-care methods and resources, but in IDIs did not report extensive previous use besides condoms. KIs described some concerns about women's ability to use self-care methods. Counseling on and provision of self-care methods and supplies may have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, but ensuring that self-care is more than just a temporary measure in health systems has the potential to increase access to SRH care and support women's autonomy and healthcare needs.

BACKGROUND: "Self-care" refers to healthcare that does not have to be given by a provider, but that people can use themselves. In sexual and reproductive health (SRH), this includes medicines or supplies like pills and injections that people can use to prevent or test for pregnancy or sexually transmitted infections. This study wanted to better understand women's interest in and use of SRH self-care and explore key informants' opinions of self-care, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We surveyed 537 women in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa and Lusaka, Zambia in 2020­2021. We also conducted interviews with 39 women and 36 key informants, including healthcare providers, government officials, and community advocates. RESULTS: Women surveyed in South Africa were more interested than those in Zambia in learning more about self-care contraception, especially daily pills, emergency pills, and injections they could give themselves. In interviews, some key informants said that they do not tell women about self-care because they worried that women could hurt themselves or blame the provider if they experienced problems. COVID movement restrictions, transport costs, and inaccessible pharmacies were all barriers that key informants mentioned to accessing tests, tools, or contraceptive methods that women could give or use themselves. CONCLUSIONS: Women surveyed were interested in learning more about self-care and those interviewed reported minimal previous use of self-care methods besides condoms. Providers also have some concerns about women's ability to use self-care methods. Counseling on and providing self-care methods and supplies may have increased during COVID-19, but increasing access to self-care could help more women take care of their own sexual and reproductive healthcare.

Household Dietary Diversity among Households with and without Children with Disabilities in Three Low-Income Communities in Lusaka, Zambia.

The purpose of this manuscript is to describe household dietary diversity (HDDS) in Lusaka, Zambia between households with and without a child with a disability living in the same communities. Cross-sectional data were collected in three low-income compounds in September 2021. Participants included households with a child with a disability enrolled in Kusamala+, a community-based program, (n = 444) and a convenience sample of adults living in the same area without a child with a disability (n = 1027). The HDDS tool asked about food groups consumed in the past 24 h by people in the household. The responses were summed (yes = 1, no = 0), range 0-12. Individual dietary diversity scores (IDDSs) were calculated for children (0-8 items). Analysis included descriptive statistics and linear regression. Mean HDDS for the households with a child with a disability was 4.8 (SD 2.1) vs. 6.1 (SD = 2.2) among households without a child with a disability (p < 0.001). The individual score for children (IDDS) for households with children with disabilities was 2.6 (SD = 1.4) vs. 3.7 (SD = 1.6) for households without a child with a disability. Households with a child with a disability had a significantly lower HDDS and IDDS in unadjusted and adjusted models (p < 0.001). National policy must assure the most vulnerable populations, and often hidden, receive focused financial and food support.

Poor adherence to antiretroviral therapy among adult people living with HIV initiated during the COVID-19 epidemic waves - observations at the University Teaching Hospital in Lusaka, Zambia.

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related disruptions in healthcare services and clinical outcomes have been predicted and documented. However, little is known about how antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have manifested amidst the 'Undetectable = Untransmittable' campaign initiative. Using a patient's viral load as a proxy for medication adherence, our study aimed to determine the adherence to ART on first-line medications among adult people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWHIV) at the University Teaching Hospital in Lusaka, Zambia during the pandemic. Methods: This was a hospital-based cross-sectional study. Secondary data of PLWHIV registered to receive ART from the Adult Infectious Disease Centre was extracted from the SmartCare® electronic health record system to constitute a resultant data set that this study used. The data extraction form was used to extract values of dependent (ART adherence measured by viral load detectability) and independent variables and imported them into the statistical analysis tool, STATA version 16.1 MP. Descriptive statistics of individual characteristics, testing for associations using Pearson's chi-square test, and stratified and combined multivariable logistic regression were performed. Results: Of the 7,281 adult PLWHIV included in this study, 9.0% (95% CI 8.3-9.6%) were virally detectable. Estimates of the odds ratios of detectable viral load remained significantly higher among adult PLWHIV who were initiated on ART after the U=U campaign was launched in Zambia and were on a monthly 2.51 (1.31-9.03) or 6-monthly 4.75 (3.52-6.41) dispensing of a dolutegravir-based regimen and those on 6-monthly dispensing of an efavirenz-based regimen 4.67 (2.16-10.08) compared to their counterparts. Overall estimates showed us the same picture 4.14 (3.22-5.31), having adjusted for all other predictor variables. Conclusion: We found that a high proportion of people with detectable viral load in the study population, irrespective of medication refill interval and type of regimen, was concentrated among adult PLWHIV who started treatment during the COVID-19 epidemic waves, as compared to those who started treatment before the pandemic. This observed disparity suggests the inherent impact of the pandemic on the adherence to ART among adult PLWHIV in Lusaka, Zambia. This further illustrates how exposed program responses are to external shocks, especially in already weakened health systems, and the need to create program response buffers and resilient program-specific strategies to minimize the effect of external disruptions.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Testing and Treatment at a Tertiary Hospital in Zambia.

Globally, tuberculosis (TB) testing and treatment have declined dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic. We quantified the change in TB visits, testing, and treatment compared with a 12-month pre-pandemic baseline at the national referral hospital's TB Clinic in Lusaka, Zambia, in the first year of the pandemic. We stratified the results into early and later pandemic periods. In the first 2 months of the pandemic, the mean number of monthly TB clinic visits, prescriptions, and positive TB polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests decreased as follow: -94.1% (95% CI: -119.4 to -68.8%), -71.4% (95% CI: -80.4 to -62.4%), and -73% (95% CI: -95.5 to -51.3%), respectively. TB testing and treatment counts rebounded in the subsequent 10 months, although the number of prescriptions and TB-PCR tests performed remained significantly lower than pre-pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted TB care in Zambia, which could have long-lasting impacts on TB transmission and mortality. Future pandemic preparedness planning should incorporate strategies developed over the course of this pandemic to safeguard consistent, comprehensive TB care.

Maintaining HIV testing and treatment services in Zambia during COVID-19: a story of success and resilience.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by a virus called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus. As countries struggled to control the spread of the virus through among other measures closure of health facilities, repurposing of health care workers, and restrictions on people's movement, HIV service delivery was affected. OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of COVID-19 on HIV service delivery in Zambia by comparing uptake of HIV services before and during COVID-19. METHODS: We used repeated cross-sectional quarterly and monthly data on HIV testing, HIV positivity rate, people living with HIV initiating ART and use of essential hospital services from July 2018 to December 2020. We assessed quarterly trends and measured proportionate changes comparing periods before and during COVID-19 divided into three different comparison time frames: (1) annual comparison 2019 versus 2020; (2) April to December 2019 versus same period in 2020; and (3) Quarter 1 of 2020 as base period versus each of the other quarters of year 2020. RESULTS: Annual HIV testing dropped by 43.7% (95%CI 43.6-43.7) in 2020 compared to 2019 and was similar by sex. Overall, annual recorded number of newly diagnosed PLHIV fell by 26.5% (95% CI 26.37-26.73) in 2020 compared to 2019, but HIV positivity rate was higher in 2020, 6.44% (95%CI 6.41-6.47) compared to 4.94% (95% CI 4.92-4.96) in 2019. Annual ART initiation dropped by 19.9% (95%CI 19.7-20.0) in 2020 compared to 2019 while use of essential hospital services dropped during the early months of COVID-19 April to August 2020 but picked up later in the year. CONCLUSION: While COVID-19 had a negative impact on health service delivery, its impact on HIV service delivery was not huge. HIV policies that were implemented before COVID-19 on testing made it easier to adopt COVID-19 control measures and to continue providing HIV testing services without much disruption.

Cross-sectional study to assess depression among healthcare workers in Lusaka, Zambia during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to assess depression among healthcare workers (HCWs) in the context of COVID-19 in Lusaka Province, Zambia. DESIGN: This cross-sectional study is nested within a larger study, the Person-Centred Public Health for HIV Treatment in Zambia (PCPH), a cluster-randomised trial to assess HIV care and outcomes. SETTING: The research was conducted in 24 government-run health facilities from 11 August to 15 October 2020 during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Lusaka, Zambia. PARTICIPANTS: We used convenience sampling to recruit HCW participants who were previously enrolled in the PCPH study, had more than 6 months' experience working at the facility and were voluntarily willing to participate. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: We implemented the well-validated 9-question Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) to assess HCW depression. We used mixed-effects, adjusted Poisson regression to estimate the marginal probability of HCWs experiencing depression that may warrant intervention (PHQ-9 score ≥5) by healthcare facility. RESULTS: We collected PHQ-9 survey responses from 713 professional and lay HCWs. Overall, 334 (46.8%, 95% CI 43.1%, 50.6%) HCWs recorded a PHQ-9 score ≥5, indicating the need for further assessment and potential intervention for depression. We identified significant heterogeneity across facilities and observed a greater proportion of HCWs with symptoms of depression in facilities providing COVID-19 testing and treatment services. CONCLUSIONS: Depression may be a concern for a large proportion of HCWs in Zambia. Further work to understand the magnitude and aetiologies of depression among HCWs in the public sector is needed to design effective prevention and treatment interventions to meet the needs for mental health support and to minimise poor health outcomes.

Antimicrobial resistance from a One Health perspective in Zambia: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is widely acknowledged as a global health problem, yet its extent is not well evaluated, especially in low-middle income countries. It is challenging to promote policies without focusing on healthcare systems at a local level, therefore a baseline assessment of the AMR occurrence is a priority. This study aimed to look at published papers relating to the availability of AMR data in Zambia as a means of establishing an overview of the situation, to help inform future decisions. METHODS: PubMed, Cochrane Libraries, Medical Journal of Zambia and African Journals Online databases were searched from inception to April 2021 for articles published in English in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines. Retrieval and screening of article was done using a structured search protocol with strict inclusion/exclusion criteria. RESULTS: A total of 716 articles were retrieved, of which 25 articles met inclusion criteria for final analysis. AMR data was not available for six of the ten provinces of Zambia. Twenty-one different isolates from the human health, animal health and environmental health sectors were tested against 36 antimicrobial agents, across 13 classes of antibiotics. All the studies showed a degree of resistance to more than one class of antimicrobials. Majority of the studies focused on antibiotics, with only three studies (12%) highlighting antiretroviral resistance. Antitubercular drugs were addressed in only five studies (20%). No studies focused on antifungals. The most common organisms tested, across all three sectors, were Staphylococcus aureus, with a diverse range of resistance patterns found; followed by Escherichia coli with a high resistance rate found to cephalosporins (24-100%) and fluoroquinolones (20-100%). CONCLUSIONS: This review highlights three important findings. Firstly, AMR is understudied in Zambia. Secondly, the level of resistance to commonly prescribed antibiotics is significant across the human, animal, and environmental sectors. Thirdly, this review suggests that improved standardization of antimicrobial susceptibility testing in Zambia could help to better delineate AMR patterns, allow comparisons across different locations and tracking of AMR evolution over time.

Factors influencing COVID-19 health protective behaviours in Zambian university students with symptoms of low mood.

BACKGROUND: Health protective behaviours are crucial in the prevention of the spread of COVID-19, particularly in university students who typically live and study in large groups. Depression and anxiety are common in students and can impact young people's motivations to follow health advice. The study aims to assess the relationship between mental health and COVID-19 health-protective behaviours in Zambian university students with symptoms of low mood. METHODS: The study was a cross-sectional, online survey of Zambian university students. Participants were also invited to take part in a semi-structured interview to explore views about COVID-19 vaccination. Invitation emails were sent explaining the study aims and directed students who self-identified as having low mood in the past two weeks to an online survey. Measures included COVID-19 preventive behaviours, COVID-19-related self-efficacy, and Hospital and Anxiety Depression scale. RESULTS: A total of 620 students (n=308 female, n=306 male) participated in the study, with a mean participant age of 22.47±3.29 years (range 18-51). Students reported a mean protective behaviour score of 74.09/105 and 74% scored above the threshold for possible anxiety disorder. Three-way ANOVA showed lower COVID-19 protective behaviours in students with possible anxiety disorder (p=.024) and those with low self-efficacy (p<0.001). Only 168 (27%) said they would accept vaccination against COVID-19, with male students being twice as likely to be willing to accept COVID-19 vaccination (p<0.001). Of 50 students interviewed. 30 (60%) expressed fears about the vaccination and 16 (32%) were concerned about a lack of information. Only 8 (16%) participants expressed doubts about effectiveness. CONCLUSION: Students who self-identify as having symptoms of depression have high levels of anxiety. The results suggest that interventions to reduce anxiety and promote self-efficacy might enhance students' COVID-19 protective behaviours. Qualitative data provided insight into the high rates of vaccine hesitancy in this population.

Effects of the ECHO tele-mentoring program on HIV/TB service delivery in health facilities in Zambia: a mixed-methods, retrospective program evaluation.

BACKGROUND: In the quest to ensure that quality healthcare is provided to all citizens through building healthcare worker capacity and extending reach for expert services, Zambia's Ministry of Health (MoH) in collaboration with its partners PEPFAR through the CDC and HRSA, began to implement the Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes (ECHO) tele-mentoring program across the country through the Health Workers for the 21st Century (HW21) Project and University Teaching Hospital HIV/AIDS Project (UTH-HAP). This ECHO tele-mentoring approach was deemed pivotal in helping to improve the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) service delivery capacity of health care workers. METHOD: The study used a mixed method, retrospective program evaluation to examine ECHO participants' performance in the management of HIV/AIDS patients in all the 10 provinces of Zambia. CASE PRESENTATION: A phenomenological design was applied in order to elicit common experiences of ECHO users through focus group discussions using semi-structured facilitation guides in four provinces (Eastern, Lusaka, Southern and Western) implementing ECHO tele-mentoring approach. These provinces were purposively selected for this study. From which, only participants that had a monthly frequency of ECHO attendance of ten (10) and above were selected. The participants were purposively selected based on the type of cadre as well as facility type so that the final sample consisted of Doctors, Nurses, Midwives, Clinical Officers, Medical Licentiates, Pharmacy and Laboratory Personnel. All sessions were audio recorded and transcribed by the data collectors. A thematic content analysis approach was adopted for analyzing content of the interview's transcripts. RESULTS: Enhanced knowledge and skills of participants on HIV/TB improved by 46/70 (65.7%) in all provinces, while 47/70 (67.1%) of the participants reported that ECHO improved their clinical practice. Further, 12/70 (17.1%) of participants in all provinces reported that presenter/presentation characteristics facilitated ECHO implementation and participation. While, 15/70(21.4%) of the participants reported that ownership of the program had contributed to ECHO implementation and participation. Coordination, another enabler accounted for 14/70 (20%). Inclusiveness was reported as a barrier by 16/70 (22.8%) of the participants while 6/70 (8.6%) of them reported attitudes as a barrier (8.6%) to ECHO participation. In addition, 34/70 (48.6%) reported poor connectivity as a barrier to ECHO implementation and participation while 8/70 (11.5%) of the participants reported that the lack of ownership of the ECHO program was a barrier. 22/70 (31.4%) reported that increased workload was also a barrier to the program's implementation. CONCLUSION: Consistent with its logical pathway model, healthcare providers' participation in ECHO sessions and onsite mentorship contributed to improved knowledge on HIV/TB among health care providers and patient health outcomes. In addition, barriers to ECHO implementation were intrinsic to the program its self, such as coordination, presenter and presentation characteristics other barriers were extrinsic to the program such as poor connectivity, poor infrastructure in health facilities and negative attitudes towards ECHO. Improving on intrinsic factors and mitigating extrinsic factors may help improve ECHO outcomes and scale-up plans.

Personal protective equipment availability and accessibility among nurses and midwives in selected urban general hospitals in Lusaka, Zambia: a cross-sectional study.

Introduction: the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic in January 2020, which has spread to many countries, including Zambia. Zambia has had challenges in providing personal protective equipment (PPEs) to nurses and midwives. The study's objective was to assess the availability and accessibility of PPEs among nurses and midwives caring for women in the general hospitals in Lusaka, Zambia. Methods: a cross-sectional analytical study design was conducted at five general hospitals in Lusaka on 162 nurses and midwives between February and April 2021, selected by purposive sampling of study sites and simple random sampling to select the participants. Data was collected using a semi-structured self-administered questionnaire and analyzed in STATA version 13. Chi-square and Fisher's exact test were used to test associations between the independent variables and the outcome, and a multivariable logistic regression was used to investigate the predictors of accessing PPEs. Results: out of the 162 who participated in the study, 48.8% were nurses, while 51.2% were midwives. Only 10% (16/160) of the participants reported having enough PPEs at work. Age, marital status, PPE use, employment duration, and protection confidence were associated with accessibility (P<0.05). Conclusion: overall, there was an inadequate provision of PPEs in the health facilities putting the nurses and midwives at a high risk of acquiring COVID-19. Policymakers need a deliberate move to make the availability and accessibility of PPEs a reality during the pandemic.

Maternal COVID-19 infection and associated factors: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Since the declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic, several studies have been conducted to examine associated factors. However, few studies have focused on pregnant women infected with COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, this study investigated the prevalence and factors associated with COVID-19 infection among pregnant women at the Levy Mwanawasa University Teaching Hospital and Women and Newborn Hospital of the University Teaching Hospitals in Lusaka, Zambia. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted between March and July 2021. Women were recruited as they presented for antenatal care. Data was collected using a structured questionnaire to capture variables of interest (socio-demographic, clinical and obstetric). COVID-19 diagnosis was made using a nasopharyngeal swab by PCR test. Multivariable logistic regression was used to control for confounding and calculate the odds ratios for each explanatory variable and respective 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: The study enrolled 352 participants with a mean (standard deviation [SD]) age of 30.1 years (5.6). One hundred thirty of 352 (36.9%; 95% CI: 31.9 to 42.2) participants had a confirmed positive SARS-CoV-2 test result. At univariable analysis, factors associated with COVID-19 were increased gestational age, education status and maternal HIV serostatus. Women with a secondary level of education were less likely to have COVID-19 infection than those with a primary level of education (AOR = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.09-0.63). On the other hand, a one-week increase in gestational age was associated with higher odds of COVID-19 infection (AOR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.06). CONCLUSION: The results showed that the prevalence of COVID-19 infection among pregnant women was 36.9% and was associated with increased gestational age and a lower level of education. To mitigate adverse maternal outcomes, there is a need to screen for COVID-19 strictly and broadly monitor prenatal women presenting for healthcare.

Burden of chronic kidney diseases and underlying causes in Zambia: evidence from the global burden of disease study 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has been a global public health problem and a major source of suffering and poor quality of life for those afflicted. Using data from the global burden of disease (GBD) study 2019, we estimated the magnitude of the burden of CKD as well as the underlying causes of CKD in the Zambian population. METHOD: The data used for this study were extracted from the GBD 2019 study. The GBD 2019 provides estimates of several metrics of disease burden including the commonly used disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) for over 369 diseases and injuries, and 87 risk factors and combinations of these in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. We estimated the burden of CKD as the number and rates (per 100,000 population) of DALYs, disaggregated by year, sex, and age group. We examined the underlying causes of CKD by estimating the population attributable fraction as the percentage contributions of risk factors to CKD DALY. RESULTS: The number of DALYs for CKD was estimated as 76.03 million (95% UI: 61.01 to 93.36) in 2019 compared to 39.42 million (95% UI: 33.09 to 45.90) in 1990, representing 93% increase whereas the DALYs rate per 100,000 population was estimated as 416.89 (95% UI: 334.53 to 511.93) in 2019 compared to 496.38 (95% UI: 416.55 to 577.87) in 1990, representing 16% reduction. CKD due to hypertension accounted for 18.7% of CKD DALYs and CKD due to diabetes (types 1 and 2) accounted for 22.7%, while CKD from glomerulonephritis accounted for the most DALYs at 33%. The age group most impacted from CKD were adolescents and young adults. CONCLUSION: The burden of CKD remains high in the Zambian population with diabetes, high blood pressure, and glomerulonephritis as important causes. The results highlight the need to develop a comprehensive action plan to prevent and treat kidney disease. Increasing the awareness of CKD among the public as well as adaptation of guidelines for treating patients with end stage kidney disease are important considerations.

The Case for Integrating Health Systems to Manage Noncommunicable and Infectious Diseases in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Lessons Learned From Zambia.

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death in the world, and 80% of all NCD deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that patients with NCDs are at increased risk of becoming severely ill from the virus. Disproportionate investment in vertical health programs can result in health systems vulnerable to collapse when resources are strained, such as during pandemics. Although NCDs are largely preventable, globally there is underinvestment in efforts to address them. Integrating health systems to collectively address NCDs and infectious diseases through a wide range of services in a comprehensive manner reduces the economic burden of healthcare and strengthens the healthcare system. Health system resiliency is essential for health security. In this article, we provide an economically sound approach to incorporating NCDs into routine healthcare services in LMICs through improved alignment of institutions that support prevention and control of both NCDs and infectious diseases. Examples from Zambia's multisector interventions to develop and support a national NCD action plan can inform and encourage LMIC countries to invest in systems integration to reduce the social and economic burden of NCDs and infectious diseases.

Trends in maternal mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic-evidence from Zambia.

The COVID-19 pandemic has increased social and emotional stressors globally, increasing mental health concerns and the risk of psychiatric illness worldwide. To date, relatively little is known about the impact of the pandemic on vulnerable groups such as women and children in low-resourced settings who generally have limited access to mental health care. We explore two rounds of data collected as part of an ongoing trial of early childhood development to assess mental health distress among mothers of children under 5-years-old living in two rural areas of Zambia during the COVID-19 pandemic. We examined the prevalence of mental health distress among a cohort of 1105 mothers using the World Health Organization's Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20) before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in August 2019 and after the first two infection waves in October-November 2021. Our primary outcome was mental health distress, defined as SRQ-20 score above 7. We analyzed social, economic and family level characteristics as factors modifying to the COVID-19 induced changes in the mental health status. At baseline, 22.5% of women were in mental health distress. The odds of mental health distress among women increased marginally over the first two waves of the pandemic (aOR1.22, CI 0.99-1.49). Women under age 30, with lower educational background, with less than three children, and those living in Eastern Province (compared to Southern Province) of Zambia, were found to be at highest risk of mental health deterioration during the pandemic. Our findings suggest that the prevalence of mental health distress is high in this population and has further worsened during COVID-19 pandemic. Public health interventions targeting mothers' mental health in low resource settings may want to particularly focus on young mothers with limited educational attainment.

Peer community health workers improve HIV testing and ART linkage among key populations in Zambia: retrospective observational results from the Z-CHECK project, 2019-2020.

INTRODUCTION: Zambia has made tremendous progress towards HIV epidemic control; however, gaps remain among key populations (KPs), such as female sex workers (FSWs), men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID) and people in prisons and enclosed settings due to cultural, social and legal barriers. The University of Maryland, Baltimore Zambia Community HIV Epidemic Control for Key Populations (Z-CHECK) project aimed to improve HIV case-finding, linkage and treatment adherence at the community level for KPs in Zambia. We describe Z-CHECK strategies and examine HIV positivity yield and antiretroviral therapy (ART) linkage among KPs to inform ongoing programme improvement. METHODS: Z-CHECK recruited, trained and deployed peer community health workers (CHWs) for KP groups, with ongoing mentorship in community engagement. CHWs offered HIV testing in safe spaces and escorted newly HIV-diagnosed clients for same-day ART initiation. Z-CHECK also reached out to KP community leaders and gatekeepers for KP mobilization and trained healthcare workers (HCWs) on KP services and sensitivity. We conducted a retrospective observational review of routinely collected aggregate data for KPs aged ≥15 years at high risk for HIV transmission across five districts in Zambia from January 2019 to December 2020. RESULTS: Z-CHECK provided HIV testing for 9211 KPs, of whom 2227 were HIV positive (positivity yield, 24%). Among these, 1901 (85%) were linked to ART; linkage for MSM, FSW, PWID and people in prisons and enclosed settings was 95%, 89%, 86% and 65%, respectively. Programme strategies that contributed to high positivity yield and linkage included the use of peer KP CHWs, social network testing strategies and opportunities for same-day ART initiation. Challenges to programme implementation included stigma and discrimination among HCWs, as well as KP CHW attrition, which may be explained by high mobility. CONCLUSIONS: Peer CHWs were highly effective at reaching KP communities, identifying persons living with HIV and linking them to care. Engaging KP community gatekeepers resulted in high diffusion of health messages and increased access to health resources. The mobility of CHWs and HCWs is a challenge for programme implementation. Innovative interventions are needed to support PWID and people in prisons and enclosed settings.